With the USA walnut crop coming in short and much higher in price than expected, buyers are turning to other origins for their needs. With both China and India showing good crops this year it looks like they will be in a position to start exporting substantial volumes again. Combined with the crop from Europe this should give enough availability for the season. With especially light material and organic products expected to be sold out in the months to come we advise you not to wait too long to cover.
With an official crop State estimate in September from the USA of 650.000 m/tons (which was already 5% down on earlier figures) most people now believe that the walnut crop from the USA will be between 580.000 to 600.000 m/tons. The quality of the crop is also expected to be poorer, due to extended high temperatures during the critical summer months and excessive rain during the harvest period which will result in more insect damage and shrivel. We expect the light grades to sell out fast and probably a much smaller price gap between the Light material and Combos compared to last season.
Whilst the USA crop is less than predicted both China and India expect good volumes. China is estimated to produce 800.000 m/tons this year and prices for light material are quite attractive at the moment compared to other origins. We expect this market to increase in the coming months.
The crop from India is also bigger than last season but has an annual production of 30,000 tons compared to a much bigger volume from both China and the USA. This bigger crop has resulted in attractive prices especially for the brokens and light light amber grades. As this crop is less in volume compared to other origins we expect most grades, especially light varieties to be sold out within the coming three months.
The crop from Europe is estimated at around 100.000 m/tons, average for the year and so has resulted in reasonable opening prices. Now that it is known that the USA crop is going to be short, more and more buyers are looking at the European crop to cover their nearby needs. Light material is also expected to be sold out in the coming months, organic varieties are expected to be short this season.
The Chilean crop is now the next crop to look forward to and will be harvested in April next year. With the USA prices being at a high level today we do not expect the crop from Chile to bring any price relief.
In summary we can conclude that with the USA crop being short more and more buyers will be looking at other origins. With especially light material and organic products expected to be sold out in the months to come we advise you not to wait too long to cover.